Dear investor,
After nearly 20 years of managing money, I kept running into the same issue. I could build a strong case for almost any stock I owned. The better I got at making the case, the harder it became to see when I was wrong. I'd start with some data, then I'd find the narrative that supported it, and before long I was convincing myself — and the people who trusted me — that this was a high-conviction idea. A lot of the time it was just me getting good at storytelling.
I didn't have a research team or an investment committee. It was mostly me in the room. And I realized how easy it is to talk yourself into something when there's no one to push back.
That's why I built MonkScore. I wanted a consistent way to score companies on five core fundamentals — the same process, every quarter, across thousands of stocks, without the story getting in the way.
I ran my worst loss through it after the fact. The quarter before it peaked, the stock scored a 1 out of 100. The numbers had been terrible for a while. I just didn't have a disciplined way to see it clearly once I'd fallen in love with the narrative.
So I tried to break it every way I could think of — out of sample, across other countries, and against every academic factor that might explain it away. It held up to all of it.
I still use my own judgment. I'm not trying to take that away. But I wanted something that could act as a check when my own thinking started sounding too convincing. Gut needs a floor, not a cage — and this is the floor I wish I'd had years ago.
Warmly,
Alberto Echevarría
Founder, MonkStreet