Dear investor,
I spent nearly 20 years investing my own money, and helping people close to me do the same. I could build a strong case for almost any stock I owned. The better I got at making that case, the harder it became to see when I was wrong. I'd start with the data, then find the story that fit it, and before long I'd talked myself, and the people who trusted me, into calling it conviction. A lot of the time it was just storytelling.
I had no research team and no investment committee. It was mostly me in the room, with no one to push back.
So I built MonkScore. Five core fundamentals, scored the same way every quarter, across thousands of stocks, with the story left out.
I ran my worst loss through it afterward. The quarter before that stock peaked, it scored 1 out of 100. The numbers had been bad for a long time. I just had no disciplined way to see that once I'd fallen for the story.
Then I tried to break it. Out of sample, in other countries, against every academic factor that might explain it away. It held.
I still use my own judgment. I wanted something to check it when my own thinking started sounding too convincing. Gut needs a floor, not a cage, and this is the floor I wish I'd had.
Warmly,
Alberto Echevarría
Founder, MonkStreet